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USDA - NASS: Potato Stocks (2019-06-13)

USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - June 13, 2019


Potato Stocks

ISSN: 1949-1565

Released June 13, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).

Potato Stocks Up 6 Percent From June 2018

The 13 major potato States held 67.4 million cwt of potatoes in storage June 
1, 2019, up 6 percent from June 1, 2018. Potatoes in storage accounted for 
16 percent of the fall storage States' 2018 production, the same percentage 
as the previous year. Potato disappearance, at 353 million cwt, was up 
3 percent from June 1, 2018. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 25.1 million 
cwt, was 12 percent higher than the same time last year. Processors in the 
8 major States used 189 million cwt of potatoes for the season, up 2 percent 
from June 2018.

Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: June 1, 2018-2019
[Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2018 totaled 28.8
million cwt]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :                   Crop of 2017                   :                           Crop of 2018                            
                 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State      :                :     Stocks     :  June stocks   :                :     Stocks     :     Stocks     :  June stocks   
                 :   Production   :    June 1,     :  as a percent  :   Production   :    April 1,    :    June 1,     :  as a percent  
                 :                :      2018      :       of       :                :      2019      :      2019      :       of       
                 :                :                :   production   :                :                :                :   production   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :    ------- 1,000 cwt ------          percent          --------------- 1,000 cwt ---------------          percent     
                 :                                                                                                                      
California ......:      3,321              (D)             (D)             3,225              900              (D)             (D)      
Colorado ........:     21,220            2,800              13            21,722            7,100            2,800              13      
Idaho ...........:    134,850           27,000              20           140,175           56,000           29,000              21      
Maine ...........:     15,200            1,700              11            15,345            5,200            1,700              11      
Michigan ........:     18,315              (D)             (D)            18,240            3,000              300               2      
Minnesota .......:     18,428            3,900              21            18,705            6,000            3,500              19      
Montana .........:      3,774              240               6             3,830            3,040               70               2      
Nebraska ........:      9,025              (D)             (D)             9,361            2,300              (D)             (D)      
New York ........:      4,032              300               7             4,118              800              400              10      
North Dakota ....:     24,420            4,000              16            23,360            6,900            2,800              12      
                 :                                                                                                                      
Oregon ..........:     25,245            3,500              14            28,060           10,000            4,500              16      
Washington ......:     99,220           13,000              13           105,600           32,000           17,000              16      
Wisconsin .......:     29,750            5,300              18            28,400            9,900            4,600              16      
                 :                                                                                                                      
Other States ....:       (NA)            2,000            (NA)              (NA)             (NA)              700            (NA)      
                 :                                                                                                                      
Total ...........:    406,800           63,740              16           420,141          143,140           67,370              16      
                 :                                                                                                                      
Klamath Basin 1/ :       (NA)              (D)            (NA)              (NA)            1,700              (D)            (NA)      
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(D)  Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.                                                                       
(NA) Not available.                                                                                                                     
1/   Includes potato stocks in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Already included in the 13 States total.                          

Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: 2009-2018
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :                                        Stocks                                         
         :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   year  :Production:December 1:January 1 :February 1: March 1  : April 1  :  May 1   :  June 1  
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                                       1,000 cwt                                       
         :                                                                                       
2009 ....: 383,962    265,800    234,300    203,500    169,700    128,700     89,610     55,120  
2010 ....: 357,467    240,200    209,400    180,300    148,500    111,000     72,000     41,320  
2011 ....: 382,318    253,000       (NA)    187,500       (NA)    115,650       (NA)     43,340  
2012 ....: 410,367    271,500       (NA)    204,600       (NA)       (NA)       (NA)       (NA)  
2013 ....: 388,204       (NA)       (NA)       (NA)       (NA)    119,450       (NA)     47,085  
2014 ....: 399,118    267,500       (NA)    206,600       (NA)    139,200       (NA)     63,535  
2015 ....: 403,062    267,900       (NA)    205,900       (NA)    137,200       (NA)     60,080  
2016 ....: 412,688    275,800       (NA)    213,000       (NA)    142,600       (NA)     67,570  
2017 ....: 406,800    277,900       (NA)    210,600       (NA)    138,800       (NA)     63,740  
2018 ....: 420,141    283,600       (NA)    213,700       (NA)    143,140       (NA)     67,370  
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.                                                                              

Quantity of Potatoes Used for Processing - 8 States: 2017-2019
[Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Blank cells indicate
estimation period had not yet begun]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      :   Current   :                                  Following year                                   
                 State                :    year     :           :           :           :           :           :           :           
                                      :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      : December 1, :January 1, :February 1,: March 1,  : April 1,  :  May 1,   :  June 1,  :  Season   
                                      :    2017     :   2018    :   2018    :   2018    :   2018    :   2018    :   2018    :           
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      :                                            1,000 cwt                                            
                                      :                                                                                                 
Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon .....:   24,840       31,920       38,950      46,610      54,060      61,285      69,840      87,379  
Maine ................................:    1,510        1,880        2,370       2,880       3,460       4,010       4,560       4,829  
Washington and Oregon ................:   32,885       39,925       46,515      54,355      61,780      68,555      76,495      91,160  
                                      :                                                                                                 
Other States 1/ ......................:   10,030       14,181       18,075      22,740      26,535      30,425      34,740      42,856  
                                      :                                                                                                 
United States ........................:   69,265       87,906      105,910     126,585     145,835     164,275     185,635     226,224  
                                      :                                                                                                 
Dehydrated 2/ ........................:   10,595       14,304       18,085      21,680      25,775      29,800      34,410      44,263  

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      :   Current   :                                  Following year                                   
                 State                :    year     :           :           :           :           :           :           :           
                                      :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      : December 1, :January 1, :February 1,: March 1,  : April 1,  :  May 1,   :  June 1,  :  Season   
                                      :    2018     :   2019    :   2019    :   2019    :   2019    :   2019    :   2019    :           
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      :                                            1,000 cwt                                            
                                      :                                                                                                 
Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon .....:   25,170       31,985       39,490      47,395      55,250      63,225      71,340              
Maine ................................:    1,470        1,890        2,400       2,870       3,450       3,870       4,290              
Washington and Oregon ................:   36,395       43,385       50,400      57,720      65,095      71,450      79,270              
                                      :                                                                                                 
Other States 1/ ......................:   10,738       14,578       18,381      23,049      26,669      30,023      33,962              
                                      :                                                                                                 
United States ........................:   73,773       91,838      110,671     131,034     150,464     168,568     188,862              
                                      :                                                                                                 
Dehydrated 2/ ........................:   13,655       17,030       20,775      24,420      28,315      32,620      36,660              
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Other States include Colorado, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin.                                                               
2/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington.                            

Accumulated Potato Shrinkage and Loss - 13 Fall Storage States: 2017-2019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :      Current      :                  :                   :             :             :             :             
  Crop  :       year        :                                        Following year                                        
  year  :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        : December 1, 2017  : January 1, 2018  : February 1, 2018  :March 1, 2018:April 1, 2018: May 1, 2018 :June 1, 2018 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :                                                   million cwt                                                    
        :                                                                                                                  
2017 ...:       12.1                14.2               15.9             17.5          19.3          21.0          22.5     

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :      Current      :                  :                   :             :             :             :             
  Crop  :       year        :                                        Following year                                        
  year  :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        : December 1, 2018  : January 1, 2019  : February 1, 2019  :March 1, 2019:April 1, 2019: May 1, 2019 :June 1, 2019 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :                                                   million cwt                                                    
        :                                                                                                                  
2018 ...:       13.1                15.1               17.1             19.0          20.9          22.9          25.1     
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: The potato stock estimates in this report are based 
primarily on a survey conducted in the first week of June in the thirteen 
major fall potato producing States, which account for 93 percent of all 
potato production last year. The potato stocks survey is a probability survey 
that includes a sample of approximately 975 growers, processors, and storage 
facilities that are contacted to obtain the quantity of potatoes stored as of 
the first of the month, as well as monthly shrinkage and loss information. 

Monthly processing data is collected from a census of all known potato 
processing facilities in eight States (Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, 
North Dakota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin).  An effort is made to 
obtain a report from all facilities. Estimates are made for missing 
facilities to make the survey complete.

Data was collected by mail, internet, telephone, or personal interview to 
obtain information on potato stocks, monthly potato processing, and monthly 
shrink and loss.

Estimating Procedures: Information obtained from the potato stocks survey, 
processing survey, and federal administrative data, is used to establish 
estimates of stocks, shrinkage and loss, and processing usage. These 
estimates are reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with 
historical estimates.

Revision Policy: Stocks, shrink and loss, and processing estimates for the 
previous estimating period are subject to revision based on late and/or 
updated information. At the end of the marketing season, all information 
available, including disposition data, are thoroughly reviewed and any 
necessary revisions for the entire crop year are published in the Potatoes 
Annual Summary.

Reliability: Reliability of the stocks and processing data must be treated 
separately because the survey designs for the two surveys are very different. 
The stocks estimates are subject to sampling variability because all 
operations holding stocks are not included in the sample. This variability, 
as measured by the relative standard error at the United States level, is 
approximately 9.64 percent which means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the 
current potato stock estimate will not be above or below the final estimate 
by more than 9.64 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence 
level) that the difference will not exceed 16.7 percent.
 
Survey indications are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, 
duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, 
recording, and processing the data. Processing, as well as stocks, are 
subject to these types of errors. These errors cannot be measured directly, 
but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection 
process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and 
reasonableness.

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural 
Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to 
nass@nass.usda.gov

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................... (202) 720-2127

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............. (202) 720-2127
Joshua Bates- Almonds, Apples, Apricots, Asparagus, Carrots, Coffee, Onions,
Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco.................................................. (202) 720-4288
 Vincent Davis - Dry Beans, Garlic, Hazelnuts, Honeydews, Kiwifruit, Lettuce,
Maple Syrup, Mint, Pears, Sweet Cherries, Tart Cherries, Tomatoes................... (202) 720-2157
     Fleming Gibson - Cauliflower, Celery, Grapefruit, Lemons, Macadamia,
Mandarins and tangerines, Mushrooms, Olives, Oranges................................ (202) 720-5412
     Greg Lemmons -Cranberries, Cucumbers, Pistachios, Potatoes, Pumpkins, 
Raspberries, Squash, Strawberries, Sugarbeets, Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes,
Tame Blueberries, Wild Blueberries.................................................. (202) 720-4285
     Dan Norris - Artichokes, Cantaloupes, Dry Edible Peas, Green Peas, Lentils,
          Nectarines, Papayas, Peaches, Snap Beans, Spinach, Walnuts, Watermelons .. (202) 720-3250
     Daphne Schauber - Avocados, Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chickpeas, 
Chile Peppers, Dates, Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Pecans............................ (202) 720-4215
     
Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following 
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nass@nass.usda.gov. 
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