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USDA - NASS: Potato Stocks (2019-04-16)

USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture - April 16, 2019


Potato Stocks

ISSN: 1949-1565

Released April 16, 2019, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service 
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of 
Agriculture (USDA).

Potato Stocks Up 3 Percent From April 2018

The 13 major potato States held 143 million cwt of potatoes in storage April 
1, 2019, up 3 percent from April 1, 2018. Potatoes in storage accounted for 
34 percent of the fall storage States' 2018 production, the same percentage 
as the previous year. Potato disappearance, at 277 million cwt, was up 
3 percent from April 1, 2018. Season-to-date shrink and loss, at 20.5 million 
cwt, was 6 percent higher than the same time last year. Processors in the 
8 major States used 150 million cwt of potatoes for the season, up 3 percent 
from April 2018.

Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: April 1, 2018-2019
[Stocks include processor holdings and most of the seed to plant following year's crop. Seed usage for all seasons in 2018 totaled 28.8
million cwt]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :                   Crop of 2017                   :                           Crop of 2018                            
                 :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      State      :                :     Stocks     :  April stocks  :                :     Stocks     :     Stocks     :  April stocks  
                 :   Production   :    April 1,    :  as a percent  :   Production   :  February 1,   :    April 1,    :  as a percent  
                 :                :      2018      :       of       :                :      2019      :      2019      :       of       
                 :                :                :   production   :                :                :                :   production   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 :    ------- 1,000 cwt ------          percent          --------------- 1,000 cwt ---------------          percent     
                 :                                                                                                                      
California ......:      3,321            1,100              33             3,225              (D)              900              28      
Colorado ........:     21,220            7,200              34            21,722           11,300            7,100              33      
Idaho ...........:    134,850           52,000              39           140,175           79,000           56,000              40      
Maine ...........:     15,200            5,000              33            15,345            8,700            5,200              34      
Michigan ........:     18,315            3,800              21            18,240            6,500            3,000              16      
Minnesota .......:     18,428            7,200              39            18,705            8,000            6,000              32      
Montana .........:      3,774            2,800              74             3,830            3,500            3,040              79      
Nebraska ........:      9,025            2,100              23             9,361            3,700            2,300              25      
New York ........:      4,032              800              20             4,118              (D)              800              19      
North Dakota ....:     24,420            9,600              39            23,360           11,700            6,900              30      
                 :                                                                                                                      
Oregon ..........:     25,245            8,300              33            28,060           15,000           10,000              36      
Washington ......:     99,220           29,000              29           105,600           49,000           32,000              30      
Wisconsin .......:     29,750            9,900              33            28,400           14,500            9,900              35      
                 :                                                                                                                      
Other States ....:       (NA)             (NA)            (NA)              (NA)            2,800             (NA)            (NA)      
                 :                                                                                                                      
Total ...........:    406,800          138,800              34           420,141          213,700          143,140              34      
                 :                                                                                                                      
Klamath Basin 1/ :       (NA)            1,800            (NA)              (NA)              (D)            1,700            (NA)      
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(D)  Withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.                                                                       
(NA) Not available.                                                                                                                     
1/   Includes potato stocks in California and Klamath County, Oregon. Already included in the 13 States total.                          

Fall Potato Production and Stocks - 13 Major States: 2009-2018
[Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
   Crop  :          :                                   Stocks                                   
   year  :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :Production:December 1:January 1 :February 1: March 1  : April 1  :  May 1   :  June 1  
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         :                                       1,000 cwt                                       
         :                                                                                       
2009 ....: 383,962    265,800    234,300    203,500    169,700    128,700     89,610     55,120  
2010 ....: 357,467    240,200    209,400    180,300    148,500    111,000     72,000     41,320  
2011 ....: 382,318    253,000       (NA)    187,500       (NA)    115,650       (NA)     43,340  
2012 ....: 410,367    271,500       (NA)    204,600       (NA)       (NA)       (NA)       (NA)  
2013 ....: 396,655       (NA)       (NA)       (NA)       (NA)    119,450       (NA)     47,085  
2014 ....: 406,080    267,500       (NA)    206,600       (NA)    139,200       (NA)     63,535  
2015 ....: 409,281    267,900       (NA)    205,900       (NA)    137,200       (NA)     60,080  
2016 ....: 412,688    275,800       (NA)    213,000       (NA)    142,600       (NA)     67,570  
2017 ....: 406,800    277,900       (NA)    210,600       (NA)    138,800       (NA)     63,740  
2018 ....: 420,141    283,600       (NA)    213,700       (NA)    143,140                        
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NA) Not available.                                                                              

Quantity of Potatoes Used for Processing - 8 States: 2017-2019
[Total quantity received and used for processing regardless of the State in which the potatoes were produced. Blank cells indicate
estimation period has not yet begun]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      :   Current   :                                  Following year                                   
                 State                :    year     :           :           :           :           :           :           :           
                                      :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      : December 1, :January 1, :February 1,: March 1,  : April 1,  :  May 1,   :  June 1,  :  Season   
                                      :    2017     :   2018    :   2018    :   2018    :   2018    :   2018    :   2018    :           
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      :                                            1,000 cwt                                            
                                      :                                                                                                 
Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon .....:   24,840       31,920       38,950      46,610      54,060      61,285      69,840      87,379  
Maine ................................:    1,510        1,880        2,370       2,880       3,460       4,010       4,560       4,829  
Washington and Oregon ................:   32,885       39,925       46,515      54,355      61,780      68,555      76,495      91,160  
                                      :                                                                                                 
Other States 1/ ......................:   10,030       14,181       18,075      22,740      26,535      30,425      34,740      42,856  
                                      :                                                                                                 
United States ........................:   69,265       87,906      105,910     126,585     145,835     164,275     185,635     226,224  
                                      :                                                                                                 
Dehydrated 2/ ........................:   10,595       14,304       18,085      21,680      25,775      29,800      34,410      44,263  

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      :   Current   :                                  Following year                                   
                 State                :    year     :           :           :           :           :           :           :           
                                      :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      : December 1, :January 1, :February 1,: March 1,  : April 1,  :  May 1,   :  June 1,  :  Season   
                                      :    2018     :   2019    :   2019    :   2019    :   2019    :   2019    :   2019    :           
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      :                                            1,000 cwt                                            
                                      :                                                                                                 
Idaho and Malheur County, Oregon .....:   25,170       31,985       39,490      47,395      55,250                                      
Maine ................................:    1,470        1,890        2,400       2,870       3,450                                      
Washington and Oregon ................:   36,395       43,385       50,400      57,720      65,095                                      
                                      :                                                                                                 
Other States 1/ ......................:   10,738       14,578       18,381      23,049      26,669                                      
                                      :                                                                                                 
United States ........................:   73,773       91,838      110,671     131,034     150,464                                      
                                      :                                                                                                 
Dehydrated 2/ ........................:   13,655       17,030       20,775      24,420      28,315                                      
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1/ Other States include Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, and Wisconsin.                                                       
2/ Dehydrated products except starch and flour. Includes Colorado, Idaho, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington.                            

Accumulated Potato Shrinkage and Loss - 13 Fall Storage States: 2017-2019
[Blank cells indicate estimation period has not yet begun]
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :      Current      :                  :                   :             :             :             :             
  Crop  :       year        :                                        Following year                                        
  year  :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        : December 1, 2017  : January 1, 2018  : February 1, 2018  :March 1, 2018:April 1, 2018: May 1, 2018 :June 1, 2018 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :                                                   million cwt                                                    
        :                                                                                                                  
2017 ...:       12.1                14.2               15.9             17.5          19.3          21.0          22.5     

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :      Current      :                  :                   :             :             :             :             
  Crop  :       year        :                                        Following year                                        
  year  :------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        : December 1, 2018  : January 1, 2019  : February 1, 2019  :March 1, 2019:April 1, 2019: May 1, 2019 :June 1, 2019 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        :                                                   million cwt                                                    
        :                                                                                                                  
2018 ...:       13.1                15.1               17.1             19.0          20.5                                 
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Methodology

Survey Procedures: The potato stock estimates in this report are based 
primarily on a survey conducted in the first week of April in the thirteen 
major fall potato producing States, which account for 93 percent of all 
potato production last year. The potato stocks survey is a probability survey 
that includes a sample of approximately 975 growers, processors, and storage 
facilities that are contacted to obtain the quantity of potatoes stored as of 
the first of the month, as well as monthly shrinkage and loss information. 

Monthly processing data is collected from a census of all known potato 
processing facilities in eight States (Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, 
North Dakota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin).  An effort is made to 
obtain a report from all facilities. Estimates are made for missing 
facilities to make the survey complete.

Data was collected by mail, internet, telephone, or personal interview to 
obtain information on potato stocks, monthly potato processing, and monthly 
shrink and loss.

Estimating Procedures: Information obtained from the potato stocks survey, 
processing survey, and federal administrative data, is used to establish 
estimates of stocks, shrinkage and loss, and processing usage. These 
estimates are reviewed for errors, reasonableness, and consistency with 
historical estimates.

Revision Policy: Stocks, shrink and loss, and processing estimates for the 
previous estimating period are subject to revision based on late and/or 
updated information. At the end of the marketing season, all information 
available, including disposition data, are thoroughly reviewed and any 
necessary revisions for the entire crop year are published in the Potatoes 
Annual Summary.

Reliability: Reliability of the stocks and processing data must be treated 
separately because the survey designs for the two surveys are very different. 
The stocks estimates are subject to sampling variability because all 
operations holding stocks are not included in the sample. This variability, 
as measured by the relative standard error at the United States level, is 
approximately 4.4 percent which means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the 
current potato stock estimate will not be above or below the final estimate 
by more than 4.4 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90 percent confidence 
level) that the difference will not exceed 7.6 percent.
 
Survey indications are also subject to non-sampling errors such as omission, 
duplication, imputation for missing data, and mistakes in reporting, 
recording, and processing the data. Processing, as well as stocks, are 
subject to these types of errors. These errors cannot be measured directly, 
but they are minimized through rigid quality controls in the data collection 
process and a careful review of all reported data for consistency and 
reasonableness.

Information Contacts

Listed below are the commodity statisticians in the Crops Branch of the National Agricultural 
Statistics Service to contact for additional information. E-mail inquiries may be sent to 
nass@nass.usda.gov

Lance Honig, Chief, Crops Branch.................................................... (202) 720-2127

Jorge Garcia-Pratts, Head, Fruits, Vegetables and Special Crops Section............. (202) 720-2127
     Vincent Davis - Apricots, Bananas, Cherries, Garlic, Lettuce, Mint, Papaya, 
Pears, Strawberries, Tomatoes....................................................... (202) 720-2157
     Fleming Gibson - Avocados, Cauliflower, Celery, Citrus, Coffee, Dates,
Figs, Kiwifruit, Nectarines, Olives, Green Peas, Taro, Watermelons.................. (202) 720-5412
     Greg Lemmons - Blackberries, Blueberries, Boysenberries, Cranberries,
Cucumbers, Potatoes, Pumpkins, Raspberries, Squash, Sugarbeets,
Sugarcane, Sweet Potatoes........................................................... (202) 720-4285
     Dan Norris - Artichokes, Austrian Winter Peas, Cantaloupes, Dry Beans,
          Dry Edible Peas, Honeydews, Lentils, Mushrooms, Peaches, Snap Beans ...... (202) 720-3250
     Daphne Schauber - Bell Peppers, Broccoli, Cabbage, Chile Peppers,
Floriculture, Grapes, Hops, Maple Syrup, Tree Nuts, Spinach......................... (202) 720-4215
     Joshua Bates- Apples, Asparagus, Carrots, Lima Beans, Onions,
Plums, Prunes, Sweet Corn, Tobacco.................................................. (202) 720-4288

Access to NASS Reports

For your convenience, you may access NASS reports and products the following 
ways:

 	All reports are available electronically, at no cost, on the NASS web 
site: www.nass.usda.gov

 	Both national and state specific reports are available via a free e-
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For more information on NASS surveys and reports, call the NASS Agricultural 
Statistics Hotline at (800) 727-9540, 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, or e-mail: 
nass@nass.usda.gov. 
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