• Oil Scene: From WTI to ASCI -- oil markets have traversed some real distance Nov 7th, 2009, 23:44 - KRT (Length: 6262)
• More than $50 million in credits awarded to pipeline company Nov 7th, 2009, 19:58 - KRT (Length: 4607)
• Offerings Weekly Round-Up Nov 7th, 2009, 19:06 - ITR (Length: 3754)
• GOP's Graham steps out on a limb on climate change Nov 7th, 2009, 18:07 - KNS (Length: 9095)
• BRIEF: Texas sales tax receipts fall 12.8 percent Nov 7th, 2009, 17:27 - KRT (Length: 1256)
• Profits decline by 38% at NFG: Oil, gas prices fall; company is upbeat Nov 7th, 2009, 14:36 - KRT (Length: 3997)
• Forest Misses on Lower Sales Nov 7th, 2009, 07:10 - ZAX (Length: 2139)
• EOG Resources Remains Neutral Nov 7th, 2009, 07:10 - ZAX (Length: 3176)
• Putting limits on speculative investing appears to be dimming Nov 7th, 2009, 07:05 - KRT (Length: 5192)
• Yemeni president inaugurates first shipment of liquefied natural gas Nov 7th, 2009, 06:58 - BBC (Length: 1345)

[ More Oil News ]

Analysis

Mon 11/2/09

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bullish, we will not classify it as extremely bullish until the following occurs: the fast moving average slope is up from the previous bar, the slow moving average slope is up from previous bar, price goes above the fast moving average, price goes above the slow moving average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average.

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band.

Additional Analysis: The market is in oversold territory.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-0.38) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is indicating an oversold market. However the market may continue to become more oversold. Look for evidenced strength before interpreting any bullishness here.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-0.56) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is indicating an oversold market. However the market may continue to become more oversold. Look for evidenced strength before interpreting any bullishness here.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-84.95) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation,CCI (-84.95) is bearish, but has begun showing some strength. Begin looking for an attractive point to cover short positions and return to the sidelines.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is rising.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is down. A rising ADX indicates that the current trend is healthy and should remain intact. Look for the current downtrending market to continue.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is less than DMI-, indicating a downward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-.

Additional Analysis: DMI is in bearish territory.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 41.03). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 41.03). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence here before getting too bullish here.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. Volume is trending lower. In general this is bearish.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 18.81; this indicates a possible market rise is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bearish because the SlowK line is below the SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.